Oil prices have risen about 2% this week on Middle East tensions. If the rhetoric from Washington cools, oil prices could pull back at least $2 a barrel, Kilduff said.
Ben Bernanke, former Federal Reserve chief, prompted the ‘taper tantrum’ when he hinted at reducing bond purchases // A paradox has emerged in the financial markets of the advanced economies since the 2008 global financial crisis. Unconventional monetary policies have created a massive overhang of liquidity. But a series of recent shocks suggests that macro liquidity has become linked with severe market illiquidity . Policy interest rates are near zero (and sometimes below it) in most advanced economies, and the monetary base (money created by central banks in the form of cash and liquid commercial-bank reserves) has soared – doubling, tripling, and, in the US, quadrupling relative to the pre-crisis period. This has kept short- and long-term interest rates low (and even negative in some cases, such as Europe and Japan), reduced the volatility of bond markets, and lifted many asset prices (including equities, real estate, and fixed-income private- and public-sector bonds). And...
Figure 1. World oil (crude and condensate) average daily production and refiners average acquisition cost in 2009 $, both based on EIA data. 2010 is partial year through September 30. /// /// /// . Figure 2. Graph of Persian Gulf oil (crude and condensate) based on EIA data. /// . Figure 3. Persian Gulf oil production and average price, based on EIA data. /// . Figure 4. OPEC reserves based on BP Statistical Report data. Graph by Rune Likvern of The Oil Drum. /// : Figure 5. Oil production from the Former Soviet Union, based on EIA data (crude and condensate). /// The USA: Figure 6. US (crude and condensate) oil production, based on EIA data. /// : Figure 8. Oil production (crude and condensate) for the rest of the world based on EIA data. /// International International energy data and analysis /// International Energy Outlook 2014 /// World markets for petroleum and other liquid fuels have entered a p...
President Trump’s fear of Joe Biden seems well-founded, especially since Biden is now favored to move into the White House in 2021, by some estimates. “With Trump facing an unlikely reelection, this means it is most likely at this point Joe Biden will win the general election in November,” Washington, DC research firm Sandhill Strategies predicted in a March 16 analysis. The coronavirus outbreak has triggered a bear market in stocks and a likely recession , which is a death sentence for presidential reelection hopes. “No U.S. President has won reelection in recent history after a period of economic downturn,” Sandhill points out. Biden hasn’t officially clinched the Democratic presidential nomination yet. But that seems inevitable, barring an unforeseen turn in the race. He handily leads Bernie Sanders in the delegate count , and Sanders himself seems to be tacitly acknowledging his inevitable dropout. Recessions are funny things, because economists only declare them months afte...
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